What’s in a Dot?

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Markets last week were dominated by just one event – the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday which caught investors on the hop. The Fed updates its economic and interest rate forecasts once a quarter and these were the source of the surprise. The infamous ‘dot plot’ showed 13 out of the 18 Fed members now projecting one … Read More

Inflation Probation

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Equity markets continued their upward trend last week. Global equities gained another 0.5% and are now up around 13% since the start of the year. The continuing gains, despite now being in traditionally the weakest time of the year for equities, can be largely put down to the bond markets. 10-year US Treasury yields fell 0.10% last week to 1.47% … Read More

Too Good to Last?

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Equity markets have started June on a positive note and, so far at least, are ignoring the fact that June is traditionally the weakest month of the year. Global equities rose 0.7% in local currency terms last week and are now some 1% above their high a month ago. The good performance has not been confined to equities. Government bonds … Read More

Fool’s Gold

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Last week was a quiet one for most markets. Global equities were little changed and are around 1-2% below their recent highs. The modest correction seen over the last couple of weeks is far from unexpected given the size of the gains leading up to it. The period of consolidation could well last a while longer, not least because May … Read More

Inflation Damnation

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Global equities fell back last week. They were down around 3% by Wednesday but subsequently recovered some of their losses, to end the week down 1.5% and 2.3% in local currency and sterling terms respectively. A pause or correction had been looking overdue, so the weakness was not that unexpected. And the decline as yet is barely noteworthy. It won’t … Read More

Investment Outlook Q2 2021

SUMMARY This year’s fiscal stimulus in the US has been considerably larger than expected A strong rebound in the global economy is now underway, led by the US Inflation will pick up sharply over coming months but much of the rise should be only temporary Interest rates look unlikely to rise for at least another couple of years in the … Read More

A Global Beat

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Global equities gained 1% last week in local currency terms, reversing their small losses of the previous couple of weeks, and are back hovering around their late April highs. The news over the last few weeks has been very supportive for equity markets. The corporate earnings season for the first quarter is now drawing to a close and earnings everywhere … Read More

Tech Time

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Global equities have paused for breath and ended last week down slightly. Following their strong run of late, with markets up 10% since the start of the year, a pause or even a correction was looking overdue. The last meaningful setback was in late February, which saw markets temporarily fall back around 4%. We are also fast approaching what is … Read More

Time to value

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Equities continued their strong run last week with global markets gaining a further 0.8% to be up 10.7% since the start of the year. The US reporting season got off to a good start, with the big banks reporting stellar results on the back of strong trading and advisory revenues. Earnings of US financial companies are now forecast in the … Read More

Time to Spend?

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Global equities have had a strong couple of weeks, with markets gaining a further 1.8% in local currency terms and 2.8% in sterling terms over the past week. Year to-date, they are now up as much as 9.3% and 7.7% in local and sterling terms respectively. At the start of the month, this buoyant mood seemed in sync with the … Read More